Target Trial Emulation Shows that Supported Causal Effects of Religious Attendance on Well-being are Selective

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

3-25-2026

Publication Source

Evolutionary Human Sciences

Volume Number

8

E-ISSN

2513843X

Article Number

e16

Abstract

Religious service attendance is associated with better well-being, but observational associations do not establish causation. We analyse six annual waves of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study to estimate causal effects of monthly attendance on 24 well-being indicators using target trial emulation. Deterministic 'make everyone attend' contrasts fail positivity: only 2-3% of non-attenders initiate attendance per year. We therefore estimate supported stochastic interventions among baseline non-attenders using a sequentially doubly robust estimator with cross-validated machine learning. Effects are selective: small gains appear in meaning and purpose, forgiveness, and sexual satisfaction, with little movement in somatic health, psychological distress, social belonging, or perceived social support. A comparison exposure (+1 hour per week socialising with others) does not reproduce the pattern. We interpret the selective pattern through a prominent cooperative account of religion: gains concentrate in coordination-relevant domains rather than in direct health pathways.

Keywords

longitudinal panel, New Zealand, outcome-wide, pair bonding, positivity assumption, ritual

Link to Full Text

Share

COinS