Incorporating Exogenous Variables in Disease Incidence
Dr. Yew-Meng Koh, Mathematics
Dengue Fever, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever. Chikungunya and Zika are four viral diseases which share a common vector, the Aedes mosquito, which is found in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Environmental factors play a role in the survival of the Aedes mosquito. Thus, modeling disease incidence trends using environmental data, as well as information about the diseases themselves, would be a viable approach. Various models (both frequentist and Bayesian) for predicting disease incidence using exogenous variables are suggested and compared; with one of the comparison metrics being prediction accuracy.
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